Karnataka Elections: Is BJP Feeling the Anti-Incumbent Heat? (2137161- Deepthi)

Time and again, I've come across the term' Anti Incumbency,' but never before the announcement of elections in Karnataka have I seen the word be used this frequently. So what exactly is anti-incumbency, and why does Karnataka politics revolve around it?

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BJP holds office in two of the six states that are yet to go into Assembly poll elections in 2023. With allegations of corruption and an absence of a chief ministerial face, is the BJP facing an anti-incumbency factor in Karnataka?

But before I start throwing around the word anti-incumbency, let's take a look at what it means.

Incumbency is the state or the time during which an office holds power. So, with the 'neti neti' method of inquiry, anti-incumbency, defined in the simplest terms, is voting against those currently in power. Incumbency is a mixed blessing, often becoming the factor that puts a party out of power. Those in power have to perform better than the opposition, primarily because of the associated disadvantage of being in power. It is a sentiment to take one out of power, a natural dislike for those currently holding power.

India has the greatest percentage of anti-incumbency in the world, according to economist and New York-based columnist Ruchir Sharma, author of 'Democracy on The Road.' Two out of the three governments are overthrown in India," claimed Sharma.

Popular Notion

Political analysts have long argued that an increase in voter turnout during an election signals an angry electorate in the mood for change. This surge in voter participation is often considered a warning sign for the incumbent, as it indicates that voters are dissatisfied with the status quo and seeking a new direction.

Economist Surjit Bhalla has pointed out that a spike in voter turnout is always bad news for the incumbent, as it suggests that the electorate is ready for change. Similarly, political commentator Prannoy Roy has noted that a rise in voter participation is usually an early warning sign for the incumbent, as it suggests that voters are unhappy with the current state of affairs. 

What the Data Says

Let's see what the data says about Karnataka's anti-incumbency and voter turnout. 

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No incumbent party has seen accession to power since 1985. For almost four decades, voters have shown a pattern of disenchantment with the incumbent, a natural dislike for those in power. In the case of Karnataka, the common belief that high voter turnout signifies anti-incumbency and low turnout signifies pro-incumbency does not hold true. The chances of the incumbent winning in Karnataka are generally slim.

With only a few days left for Karnataka Assembly Elections, it remains to be seen whether the saffron party will be an anomaly and rise to power again with its dreams of winning 150 seats. Post its victory in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh in the recently concluded assembly poll elections, the BJP is pretty hopeful about bucking the trend in the only south-Indian state where it is holding office. 

Is BJP facing the Public Discontent?

Should the ruling BJP be worried about anti-incumbency in this year's polls? In an encounter with the media, Siddaramaiah said, "The ground reality in Karnataka is that there is a wave in favor of the Congress party. There is strong anti-incumbency against the BJP government because of its misrule."

Dissatisfaction among the general public regarding employment rates, healthcare facilities, rising crime rates, corruption, etc., indicates that the government's policies and performance have negatively impacted people.

Various articles also suggest that the BJP's boat might overturn owing to a massive anti-incumbency wave. The Wire reported that a survey shows that the Bommai-led BJP should not be given another chance, and popular perception persists that the government is highly corrupt. The Week too, points out that the party must combat public discontent. 

A SWOT analysis by the Times of India also points out that the saffron party is experiencing it. In the article, the author also discusses some of the party's weaknesses. The absence of a chief ministerial face in the BJP for the current elections is among them.

Its continual projection of BS Yediyurappa (BSY), who retired from electoral politics, as their main leader raises questions about who the next big name is. Does it mean nobody from the BJP matches BSY's popularity? Does it mean he's the tallest Lingayat leader that party will have? This lack of clarity on who will lead the party if it comes to power can create confusion and a sense of uncertainty among voters. 

In its article, The Week points out that the rising allegations of corruption against leader Bommai can negatively impact the party. Rising corruption cases against politicians and government officials can indicate the current government's corruption level. According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Karnataka reported 168 cases of corruption in 2019. 

Comparing the promises the ruling party made in its manifesto to its performance will help us see how successful it was in fulfilling its promises. The BJP's manifesto promised to create one crore jobs in the state over the next five years. However, the unemployment rate in Karnataka has risen since 2018, and it stood at 6.8% in March 2021, which is higher than the national average of 6.5%.

It also promised to strengthen law and order in the state by setting up 5000 CCTV cameras, increasing the number of police personnel, and improving the quality of police training. The crime rate per 1 lakh population in Karnataka was 3,720 in 2018, 3,446 in 2019, and 3,818 in 2020, as per NCRB data. 

Wind of Change?

As Karnataka gears up for yet another state election, it remains to be seen if the specter of anti-incumbency looms large over the BJP. In the end, only time will tell whether the BJP can successfully navigate the challenges of anti-incumbency and the role that voter turnout plays in it. The fate of Karnataka politics hangs in the balance, and the upcoming election will be a crucial moment in the state's political history. 

The state is the only one in South India where the party has gained a foothold, and it has become an important battleground in expanding its presence in the region. The outcome of the Karnataka elections will also have important implications for the BJP's prospects in the 2024 national elections. The party hopes to build on its recent successes in state-level elections and expand its dominance at the national level.

We will soon bear witness to the triumphs and tragedies, the hopes and fears, that shape the destiny of this state.